CHESSMETRICS

The Chessmetrics.com database and methodology is notable for its extensive extraction of data from multiple historical sources, cleaning and normalization of this data, SQL Server batch (set-based) data processing, randomized Monte Carlo simulation used to derive predictive models. Jeff has consulted for members of several other industries. Visit the Chessmetrics.com site for more information, or click here to view a listing of our popular publications.

Jeff Sonas, owner of Sonas Consulting, developed the Chessmetrics website and database, internationally acclaimed as the premier analytical tool for measuring the historical accomplishments of chess masters past and present. This work has been referenced in many books, articles, and other publications, and is considered to be extremely useful to researchers investigating the measurement of progress, both within chess and also in other intellectual endeavors including machine learning. The Chessmetrics methodology can be used for predicting with high accuracy the outcome of contemporary grandmaster tournaments, unsurpassed by any other chess rating methodology.

In 2002 Jeff was invited to join an international conference of mathematicians in Moscow, Russia, along with a team headed by grandmaster Garry Kasparov, to discuss potential changes to the rating methodology used by the world chess federation (FIDE). More recently (2009 and 2010) Jeff has been the only American invitee to summit meetings of mathematical experts and chess rating administrators in Athens, Greece, to perform ongoing evaluation of the performance of the FIDE chess rating database and methodology.

 

Jeff has also written numerous articles for leading chess websites on statistical concepts in chess:

Landmark Articles

The Sonas Rating Formula – Better than Elo? (October, 2002)

Championship Chessmetrics Analysis - The best of all possible world championships (April 2002)

Rating inflation – its causes and possible cures (July 2009)

Chessmetrics Formulas (March 2005)

What was the strongest tournament of all time? (December 2009)

Jeff Sonas on the Double Elimination Format (July 2004)

Article Series on The Greatest Chess Player of All Time

The Greatest Chess Player of All Time – Part I (April 2005)

The Greatest Chess Player of All Time – Part II (April 2005)

The Greatest Chess Player of All Time – Part III (May 2005)

The Greatest Chess Player of All Time – Part IV (May 2005)

Article Series on Man vs. Machine (Computer Chess)

Man vs Machine – who is winning? (October 2003)

Are chess computers improving faster than grandmasters? (October 2003)

Physical Strength and Chess Expertise (November 2003)

How (not) to play chess against computers (October 2003)

Putting his money where his stats are (November 2003)

Other Notable Articles

Ratings Summit in Athens (June 2009)

Magnus Carlsen’s Performance in Nanjing (October 2009)

Who’s Going to win the FIDE world championship? (November 2001)

Will Ruslan Ponomariov become the First Teenage Champ? (January 2002)

A statistician’s view of the FIDE World Championship (October 2005)

 

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